Index-level analysis on the Hang Seng. Long-term structural frameworks for Hong Kong equities.
Individual stock selection is only half of the investment equation. Understanding the market structure — whether the index is in a secular uptrend, a breakdown, or a recovery — informs the risk/reward calculation on every individual position. When the Hang Seng Index breaks a 35-year trendline, that is a structural event, not a data point. When it recovers 77% and retests that line, the decision about whether the break was permanent becomes one of the most important questions in the market.
Six Bounces. One Break. Now the Retest.
The Hang Seng broke its 35-year trendline in October 2022 for the first time, falling to 14,604. Three identifiable, temporary disruptions caused the break. All three have reversed. The index has recovered +77% and is retesting the trendline from below. The question is whether this retest resolves as a recovery or a rejection.
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